Algorithm of making a market balance forecast
1. A classifier of the analyzed product types is worked out.
2. The sectoral and geographical structure of consumption is researched.
3. The largest consumers are determined for each product type.
4. Intermediate product types are determined, the price-setting chain is analysed.
5. The largest producers are analysed, and so are countries (regions) from where shipments can be made to the markets under review.
6. The cost level for production (shipment) of a particular product type is estimated for each producer (supplier), and dependence of production volumes on margin and available capacities is assessed.
7. Need for a commodity depending on the expected price level (by years), GDP and industry dynamics as regards consumers is determined for each product.
8. A forecast market balance (export, import, domestic production, apparent consumption) is calculated for each product type in each region.
9. Following linear optimisation procedure, distribution of forecast consumption volumes among potential suppliers is assessed.
10. Aggregation of forecast estimates is done.
11. Sensitivity of the built forecast to changes in basic variables is studied.
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