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Forecast of Russian steel product market development in 2013


In late 2012 Metal Expert Consulting completed its research concerning the prospects for the Russian steel product market development.

The research purpose is to summarize the results of 2012 and make a mid-term development forecast (for 2013 in particular) for Russian ferrous metallurgy as well as steel product consumption (the economy of the country, key steel consuming industries, major export-import partner countries/regions).

During the course of the works, the situation in the key consuming industries of Russia (construction by types, engineering by types, oil and gas industry and others) was analyzed for 2012, their prospects were determined and estimated for 2013, the current and expected export-import trends for the main partner countries/regions (China and SE Asia, the CIS, Europe) were described, the most probable scenario of price changes in the world and Russian markets for raw materials and steel products was chosen.

According to Metal Expert Consulting's assessments, in 2012 steel consumption in Russia increased at a faster pace than the average world consumption and that in most of the global economies (5% against 1%). The consumption rise resulted from the growth of demand from engineering companies (primarily car makers) and construction firms. Metal Expert Consulting expects the rates of the consumption rise in Russia in 2013 (5-6%) to stay above the global average and exceed the rates of the GDP growth in the country (according to the major moderately optimistic scenario in the forecast by Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development– 3.6%), which is characteristic of developing countries. The growth of demand from engineering and construction companies will still be fundamental for the forecast consumption increase.

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