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Scrap generation trends. Russian ferrous scrap market balance

The X International forum “Ferrous and non-ferrous scrap 2014” was held in Moscow on February 19-20. A Metal Expert Consulting representative gave a report there called “Scrap generation trends. Russian ferrous scrap market balance”.

The key issues in the report:

– The Russian ferrous scrap market should be considered a classical free market when forecasts about it are made, and the prospects of the regional demand and supply balances should be analyzed;

– Russian consumers will need increasingly more scrap from the free market in the coming years. The main reasons are commissioning of new steelmaking capacities, decline in generation of on-site scrap (through a rise in the share of the continuously cast steel), and almost the largest possible share of pig iron in charge at most steelmakers;

– Metal Expert Consulting’s methodology to assess generation of obsolete scrap in Russia includes a multi-factor model based on a number of assumptions resulting from analysis of the related foreign and local experience. The model is basically required to be capable of presenting a real regional scrap collection picture, which was set according to railway statistics on scrap transportation and estimates of scrap deliveries by truck;

– To keep the scrap market from facing a shortage of supply, its participants have to invest into scrap processing.

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